Within Clusters
How Many Tragedies Should We Expect?
Large STEM and laboratory populations make some tragic deaths statistically expected before conspiracy claims are added.
On this page
- Why population size changes the meaning of rare events
- STEM, Los Alamos, and JPL as scale examples
- What a fair baseline would need to include
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Introduction
Claims about suspicious deaths among UFO researchers, advanced-propulsion advocates, aerospace engineers, or scientists connected to sensitive government programmes often begin with a list of names. The crucial question is not whether the deaths occurred, but whether the number is unusual for the population involved. A cluster cannot be evaluated without a denominator.
This matters because the populations commonly cited in such narratives are extremely large. The U.S. STEM workforce alone numbers roughly 36 million people, about one quarter of the entire workforce. Major institutions that frequently appear in conspiracy discussions, including Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), employ thousands to tens of thousands of people across scientific, engineering, administrative, security, contractor, and support roles. In populations of that size, deaths, accidents, illnesses, retirements, disappearances, and other tragedies are statistically expected every year, even when no common cause exists. ncses.nsf.gov+2NSF - U.S. National Science Foundation [ncses.nsf.gov]ncses.nsf.govSTE M Talent: Education, Training, and WorkforceSTEM Talent: Education, Training, and Workforce - NCSESFeb 12, 2026 — In 2023, science and engineering (S&E) workers (42%) and S&E-relate…
Understanding these background rates is a necessary first step before deciding whether any apparent cluster deserves further investigation.
How Many Tragedies Should We Expect?
The human mind tends to focus on the numerator—the number of unusual events—while overlooking the denominator, the number of people exposed to risk.
Suppose a population contains 10,000 scientists. Even if their mortality risk is no different from that of other adults with similar ages and backgrounds, some will die each year from natural causes, accidents, disease, suicide, or homicide. When the population expands to tens of thousands or millions of people, such events cease to be surprising in statistical terms.
This is particularly relevant to allegations involving secret aerospace or advanced-energy research. Lists of deceased researchers often appear alarming because the occupations seem specialised. Yet specialised occupations can still contain very large numbers of people. The National Science Foundation reports a STEM workforce of approximately 36 million workers in the United States. Even a very low annual mortality rate applied to such a population would generate large absolute numbers of deaths every year. ncses.nsf.gov+2NSF - U.S. National Science Foundation [ncses.nsf.gov]ncses.nsf.govNSB-2024-5, The STEM Labor Force - NCSES - NSFMay 30, 2024 — The science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce (36.8…
A cluster claim therefore requires more than identifying several tragedies. It must show that the number observed is significantly higher than the number expected.
Why Population Size Changes the Meaning of Rare Events
A common mistake in conspiracy narratives is treating rare events as though they remain rare when multiplied across enormous populations.
Consider a hypothetical event that affects only one person in 100,000 per year. In a group of 1,000 people, such an event would be genuinely unusual. In a population of 10 million people, however, one would expect around 100 such events annually even without any coordinated cause.
This principle becomes important when lists combine:
- Scientists from different disciplines.
- Employees from different laboratories.
- Current and former staff.
- Contractors and subcontractors.
- Events occurring across many years.
Each expansion increases the population under consideration and therefore increases the number of statistically expected tragedies.
When a list is assembled after the events have occurred, there is also a risk of selection bias. Cases that fit the narrative are included, while the much larger number of unaffected colleagues remain invisible. The resulting pattern can appear extraordinary despite being consistent with normal background rates.
STEM, Los Alamos, and JPL as Scale Examples
The scale of institutions often discussed in UFO- and antigravity-related narratives is larger than many readers realise.
Los Alamos National Laboratory reports a workforce of roughly 18,000 people, while public statements in recent years have placed total employment in the broader Los Alamos complex at well over 17,000 individuals. [Los Alamos National Laboratory]lanl.govOf those: Roughly 13,000 are employees of Triad National Security LLC; 400 are guard force…Read more…
JPL has historically employed around 7,000 people and, following workforce reductions, still maintains a workforce of roughly 5,500 employees and on-site subcontractors. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)+2NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) [jpl.nasa.gov]jpl.nasa.govNASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)JPL Named Among 'Best Places to Work in 2022'Jan 12, 2022 — The laboratory employs a workforce of abo…
These numbers matter because they transform the interpretation of individual cases.
If a laboratory employs thousands of people over a decade, the total person-years of exposure become enormous. Even absent any unusual hazards, one should expect:
- Deaths from natural causes.
- Fatal illnesses.
- Traffic accidents.
- Recreational accidents.
- Suicides.
- Occasional homicides.
- Missing-person investigations.
The mere existence of such cases within a large scientific institution is not evidence of a coordinated campaign. The relevant question is whether the observed number exceeds what would normally occur among a population of that size and demographic composition.
Recent media coverage of alleged clusters involving personnel linked to nuclear or space programmes illustrates this issue. Reports discussing approximately ten deaths or disappearances over several years generated widespread speculation, yet the institutions involved collectively employ many thousands of people. Without a baseline expectation, the raw count alone reveals little about whether the events are statistically unusual. [CBS News]cbsnews.comCBS NewsFBI investigating deaths and disappearances of staff at…April 17, 2026 — 21 Apr 2026 — The disappearances and deaths of 10 gov…
Why Scientists Are Not a Random Sample
A fair baseline requires more than counting heads.
Scientists and engineers differ from the general population in ways that can affect mortality statistics. They often have higher levels of education, different income profiles, distinctive age distributions, and different occupational exposures.
For example, some laboratories have large populations of older employees, retirees, former staff, and long-serving specialists. If a purported cluster contains many individuals in their sixties, seventies, or eighties, comparisons with the entire adult population would be misleading. Age alone substantially changes expected mortality.
Similarly, some institutions involve extensive travel, fieldwork, commuting, laboratory work, or high-security environments. Any evaluation must compare the observed cases against populations sharing similar characteristics rather than against the public at large.
Studies of laboratory workforces have shown that occupational health patterns can differ from national averages, underscoring the need for carefully chosen comparison groups rather than simplistic counts. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPub Med Mortality among workers at the Los Alamos Nationalby JD Boice Jr · 2022 · Cited by 73 — SMRs for Hispanic workers were significantly high for cancers of the stomach and liver, cirrh…
What a Fair Baseline Would Need to Include
Before concluding that a series of deaths suggests suppression of UFO or advanced-propulsion knowledge, a rigorous analysis would need several pieces of information.
First, the population must be clearly defined. Are we discussing all employees, only researchers, only physicists, only those with security clearances, or only people allegedly connected to specific projects?
Second, the time period must be specified. Ten deaths in one year may imply something different from ten deaths over ten years.
Third, case definitions must be consistent. Natural deaths, accidents, suicides, homicides, and disappearances should not automatically be merged into a single category without justification.
Fourth, expected rates must be calculated. Researchers would normally estimate how many events should occur in a comparable population and then test whether the observed number significantly exceeds that expectation.
Finally, evidence of connection is required. A true cluster investigation seeks shared mechanisms, common exposures, identifiable perpetrators, or other causal links. Similar job titles alone are insufficient.
Without these elements, a list of names remains descriptive rather than evidential.
The Key Question Is Excess Risk, Not Raw Numbers
Within discussions of alleged deaths among UFO researchers, antigravity advocates, aerospace engineers, or laboratory scientists, the most important statistical question is not “Did several people die?” but “Did more people die than should have been expected?”
Large scientific communities naturally generate tragic events because they contain large numbers of human beings living ordinary lives. Tens of millions of STEM workers, thousands of employees at major laboratories, and decades of observation create countless opportunities for coincidences that can later be assembled into compelling narratives. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)+3ncses.nsf.gov+3ncses.nsf.gov [ncses.nsf.gov]ncses.nsf.govSTE M Talent: Education, Training, and WorkforceSTEM Talent: Education, Training, and Workforce - NCSESFeb 12, 2026 — In 2023, science and engineering (S&E) workers (42%) and S&E-relate…
Any claim that a cluster reflects a hidden campaign must therefore clear a higher bar than the existence of multiple deaths. It must demonstrate excess risk above background expectations and provide evidence linking the cases beyond their shared association with science, aerospace, or advanced-technology research.
Amazon book picks
Further Reading
Books and field guides related to How Many Tragedies Should We Expect?. Use these as the next step if you want deeper reading beyond the article.
Fooled by Randomness
Rating: 4.0/5 from 15 Google Books ratings
Focuses on mistaken interpretations of rare events and apparent patterns.
The Drunkard's Walk
Explains how chance events and statistical expectations can create seemingly meaningful patterns.
The Demon-Haunted World
Rating: 4.5/5 from 43 Google Books ratings
Explains how to evaluate unusual claims and distinguish evidence from persuasive narratives.
The Improbability Principle
Directly addresses why surprising events become inevitable in large populations.
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Endnotes
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NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)JPL Named Among 'Best Places to Work in 2022'Jan 12, 2022 — The laboratory employs a workforce of abo...
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science and engineering workforce, their demographic characteristics, educational history, additional training...Read more...
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workers and includes those who work in traditional S&E occupations and those who...Read more...
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Title: foreign born stem workers
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STEM Labor Force of Today: Scientists, Engineers, and...Aug 31, 2021 — Individuals in the STEM workforce make important contributions to...
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Additional References
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government shutdown. The layoffs will affect staff across JPL's technical, business, and support departments. This move is part of a reor...
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NSF publishes new report on the STEM labor forceThe STEM workforce now translates to 36.8 million people across the country, and the Depa...
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Link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/national-science-foundation_executive-summary-activity-7428078010311999488-nvj7Source snippet
US STEM Workforce Grows, Outpaces Non-STEM Fields“The analysis finds that science, technology, engineering and mathematics workers repres...
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Link: https://losalamosreporter.com/2026/03/05/wyka-tells-county-council-lanl-expects-to-receive-5-2-billion-in-federal-appropriations-with-significant-portion-to-support-expanding-nuclear-weapons-activities/Source snippet
Wyka Tells County Council LANL Expects To Receive $5.2...5 Mar 2026 — “Let me be very deliberate in what those numbers mean; LANL typica...
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Link: https://prospeo.io/c/nasa-jet-propulsion-laboratory-revenue -
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NBC Los Angeles4 of 10 scientists with mysterious deaths, disappearances...21 Apr 2026 — At least 10 American scientists with ties to U.S...
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Expected deaths =.009xN where N is the number of whatever you want (scientists...Read more...
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How many employees work at Los Alamos National Lab?Los Alamos National Laboratory has 12,063 employees, according to Revelio Labs workfor...
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